Reuters: 6 Conflict Scenarios in the Taiwan Strait, NSB Director-General: China Won't Attack Taiwan Before 2024
Reuters interviewed military strategists who imagined six possible scenarios for mainland China's attacking Taiwan. The most serious scenario would erupt into an East Asian war.
(Photo from: Reuters)
Reuters: Six Conflict Scenarios Battling for Taiwan
China Times, November 5 and 7, 2021
On November 5, Reuters issued a special report titled: “T-Day: The Battle for Taiwan.” The report is based on interviews with 12 military strategists and 15 current and former military officers from the United States, Japan, Australia and Taiwan and articles in American, mainland Chinese, and Taiwanese military and professional journals and official publications. The report examines six conflict scenarios including, in order as follows, the Chinese blockade of the Matsu Islands, invasion of Kinmen, customs quarantine, full blockade, air and missile campaign, and all-out invasion. In the end, the United States, Japan, and Australia jointly assist Taiwan to launch counterattacks against China resulting in major war in East Asia.
The report indicates that a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be a devastating blow to the United States because at a stroke the United States would lose its status as the pre-eminent power in Asia. If America were unwilling or unable to defend Taiwan, its network of allies in the Asia-Pacific, including Tokyo, Seoul, and Canberra, would be more vulnerable to military and economic coercion from China. Some might switch allegiance to Beijing, others might seek nuclear weapons to boost their own security. Even if the United States did choose to defend Taiwan, there is no guarantee it would defeat an increasingly powerful People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
According to a commentator, the United States is "fortifying" Taiwan as a strategy to counter China, while Beijing is attempting to coerce Taiwan to the negotiation table by 2027 through military means.
United Daily News)
Why 2027 Will Be a Critical Year for Taiwan and China
By Su Yung-lin
China Times, November 5, 2021
Just as the United States Department of Defense released its new “China Military Power Report” warning that China will force Taiwan to talks in 2027, Republican senators introduced a Taiwan Deterrence Act. The bill proposes to appropriate $2 billion in annual government funding to support Taiwan's defense. Beijing at the highest levels has repeatedly emphasized peaceful reunification, but the United States and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration in Taiwan have joined hands to force Beijing to consider or prepare for armed conflict with Taiwan, essentially accelerating the position of Taiwan as a fortress and a hedgehog.
In the past, there was a long-standing "3T dispute" between the United States and China: Tibet, Taiwan, and trade. As such, mainland Chinese public opinion and academic circles often regarded American involvement in Taiwan Strait issues simply as playing the "Taiwan card." However, since the Trump and Biden administrations established and deepened the line of competition and counterbalance with China, Taiwan is no longer just a bargaining chip in the eyes of the United States. Instead, Taiwan is now seen as the main axis of the "New Cold War" strategy against China, with the United States hoping to replicate the successful efforts it once executed against the Soviet Union.
President Tsai Ing-wen, who also serves as chairwoman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), will decide the vast majority of the party's nominees for mayors and county executives in the 2022 local elections. According to a commentator, abolishing the system of primary elections is a reversal of democracy.
(Photo from: The Storm Media)
When the Democratic Progressive Party is No Longer Democratic
By Hung Chung-wen
United Daily News, November 6, 2021
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) just promulgated special regulations for the nomination of city mayors and county magistrates in the 2022 election. Among 22 cities and counties, only Keelung, Hsinchu City, and Pingtung have primary elections. All the candidates running for the head of other 19 cities and counties are nominated by the party chairperson. This move caused an uproar for everyone. The DPP has kept bragging that it will protect Taiwan’s democratic values, but it is actually the most undemocratic party.
Michelle Wu, a second-generation Taiwanese American, was elected the first female mayor of Boston, Massachusetts, in two centuries.
November 1: The Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) announced that in response to the number of people returning to Taiwan for Chinese New Year, quarantine policies will be relaxed starting December 14. Those entering from non-key high-risk countries may shorten the quarantine period to 10 days in a hotel, followed by four days at home. Returning travelers must test three times before completing the quarantine process.
November 2: The general election for the mayor of Boston was held on November 2. Taiwanese American councilwoman Michelle Wu defeated her also Democratic opponent, Annissa George, to become elected the first mayor who is not a white male in two centuries. Wu is expected to take office in two weeks. Michelle Wu, 36, is daughter to parents from Taiwan. She advocated bold reforms during her tenure as a member of the Boston City Council.
November 2: The leaders' summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) will be held November 12 in New Zealand by video conference. President Tsai Ing-wen announced on November 2 that Morris Chang, founder of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), will attend as leader's representative and asked Chang to seek support by APEC members for Taiwan's bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This is the fifth time that Chang will serve as Taiwan's leader representative at APEC.
November 2: Starting from next year, educational mobilization of reserved military men will be held once per year for 14 days. The Ministry of National Defense stated that there will be about 15,000 people, particularly those who have been discharged within eight years, participating in the new system of educational mobilization. According to current plans, shooting training will be increased from 12 to 28 hours, and total shooting rounds per person will increase from 86 to 183 rounds. Combat training will also increase from 12 to 56 hours.
November 4: A delegation representing the "Special Committee on Foreign Interreference in all Democratic Processes in the European Union, including Disinformation" of the European Parliament arrived in Taiwan on November 3. This is the first time that the European Parliament has sent an official delegation to Taiwan. President Tsai received the delegation at the Presidential Office Building. She stated that Taiwan and the EU should build a democratic alliance against compound threats and misinformation.
November 5: The United States Department of Defense released a 2021 China Military Power Report on November 3, indicating that the mainland is rapidly promoting military modernization, with a goal of being able to compete with the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific region by 2027 and forcing Taiwan's leaders to negotiate on terms set by Beijing. The report also removed the "foreign troops stationed in Taiwan" from the conditions for China to use force against Taiwan for the first time. The "red lines" beyond which the mainland may use force against Taiwan was reduced from the original seven to six.
On November 4, the Wall Street Journal published an opinion article authored by Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng, arguing that while Taiwan has less military strength, Taiwan will not capitulate to China.
November 6: Members of the U.S. Congress have successively introduced bills supporting Taiwan. For example, Republican senators proposed a "Taiwan Deterrence Act," which seeks to provide Taiwan with $2 billion in military financing and other assistance for the next decade to strengthen Taiwan's deterrence capabilities against China.
Bipartisan members of both the Senate and House of Representatives also proposed a "U.S.-Taiwan Public Health Protection Act," asking the executive branch to cooperate with Taiwan's Centers for Disease Control, Ministry of Health and Welfare, in setting up a U.S.-Taiwan Infectious Disease Monitoring Center at the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT). American experts on infectious diseases would be stationed there to monitor the public health situation in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent the next epidemic.